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The Delphi Technique


Like any other survey method, the Delphi method has strengths and weaknesses. These are summarised in Table 1, and further critiques can be found in and further critiques can be found in Goodman (1987), and Sackman (1975). In our experience, the benefits outweigh its drawbacks; and this method seems particularly relevant for psychology. Traditionally, there has been a divide between quantitative and qualitative methods.

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The experts are allowed to adjust their answers in subsequent rounds, based on how they interpret the "group response" that has been provided to them. Since multiple rounds of questions are asked and the panel is told what the group thinks as a whole, the Delphi method seeks to reach the correct response through consensus. A two-round Delphi (e.g. Petry et al., 2007) is most suitable when there is a clear literature base from which to establish the survey instrument and if the main aim is to take the temperature of opinion on a topic.

How Did the Oracle at Delphi Really Prophesize?

First applications of the Delphi method were in the field of science and technology forecasting. The objective of the method was to combine expert opinions on likelihood and expected development time, of the particular technology, in a single indicator. One of the first such reports, prepared in 1964 by Gordon and Helmer, assessed the direction of long-term trends in science and technology development, covering such topics as scientific breakthroughs, population control, automation, space progress, war prevention and weapon systems. Other forecasts of technology were dealing with vehicle-highway systems, industrial robots, intelligent internet, broadband connections, and technology in education. The person coordinating the Delphi method is usually known as a facilitator or Leader, and facilitates the responses of their panel of experts, who are selected for a reason, usually that they hold knowledge on an opinion or view.

In other projects

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The origins of the Oracle at Delphi hark back to 1400 B.C.; it was first under the control of the earth mother Gaia, until it was either seized by or given to Apollo. Apollo then appointed Pythia as the Oracle of Delphi, and that's where our Delphi comes into play. Temple, Robert K.G., "Fables, Riddles, and Mysteries of Delphi", Proceedings of 4th Philosophical Meeting on Contemporary Problems, No 4, 1999 (Athens, Greece) In Greek and English. The Sibyl rock is a pulpit-like outcrop of rock between the Athenian Treasury and the Stoa of the Athenians upon the sacred way which leads up to the temple of Apollo in the archaeological area of Delphi.

Where does know thyself come from?

Oracles. The Oracles are beings and places that can give prophecies in Greek mythology. Four of them are associated with the god Apollo. There are five of them.

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From the entrance of the site, continuing up the slope almost to the temple itself, are a large number of votive statues, and numerous so-called treasuries. These were built by many of the Greek city states to commemorate victories and to thank the oracle for her advice which was thought to have contributed to those victories. These buildings held the rich offerings made to Apollo; these were frequently a "tithe" or tenth of the spoils of a battle. The most impressive is the now-restored Athenian Treasury, built to commemorate their victory at the Battle of Marathon in 490 BC.

Modern archaeologists weren't convinced – not about the tortoise and not about the gas. They inspected the geology of the area for volcanic activity that might vent gas, and found nothing, not even in the distant past. Later, however, they took another look and found two fault lines converging just under the temple of Delphi.

It is claimed to be where an ancient Sibyl pre-dating the Pythia of Apollo sat to deliver her prophecies. The Ottomans finalized their domination over Phocis and Delphi in about 1410CE. It seems that one of the first buildings of the early modern era was the monastery of the Dormition of Mary or of Panagia (the Mother of God) built above the ancient gymnasium at Delphi. It must have been towards the end of the 15th or in the 16th century that a settlement started forming there, which eventually ended up forming the village of Kastri. Ruins of the ancient temple of Apollo at Delphi, overlooking the valley of Phocis.

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How did the oracle of Delphi work?

Delphi is located in upper central Greece, on multiple plateaux along the slope of Mount Parnassus, and includes the Sanctuary of Apollo (the god of light, knowledge and harmony), the site of the ancient Oracle. This semicircular spur is known as Phaedriades, and overlooks the Pleistos Valley.

The most important oracles of Greek antiquity were Pythia (priestess to Apollo at Delphi), and the oracle of Dione and Zeus at Dodona in Epirus. Other oracles of Apollo were located at Didyma and Mallus on the coast of Anatolia, at Corinth and Bassae in the Peloponnese, and at the islands of Delos and Aegina in the Aegean Sea. A number of Delphi forecasts are conducted using web sites that allow the process to be conducted in real-time. For instance, the TechCast Project uses a panel of 100 experts worldwide to forecast breakthroughs in all fields of science and technology.

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That is simply because Delphi is a technique designed primarily to deal with long-range forecasting. Long-range forecasting is essential to any business that hopes to survive in the increasingly competitive global environment. While executives may not have enough time to gather data via Delphi for short and intermediate planning, they can use it for long-range forecasting. Many pioneering academic uses of the Delphi technique occurred in the late 1960s and early 1970s.

In 449–448 BC, the Second Sacred War (fought in the wider context of the First Peloponnesian War between the Peloponnesian League led by Sparta and the Delian-Attic League led by Athens) resulted in the Phocians gaining control of Delphi and the management of the Pythian Games. It is unclear exactly what happened at the site when people came to her for advice, as most documentations neglected to mention it, assuming it was common knowledge at the time. After the god Apollo supposedly either seized or was given the sacred site from the earth mother Gaia, women from Delphi were chosen over several centuries to serve as the Oracle in succession. It was recorded that she would speak in gibberish, or tongues — perhaps a fitting parallel to Parseltongue, another ancient language Cursed Child's Delphi speaks.

However, while the Delphi method allows for commentary from a diverse group of participants, it does not result in the same sort of interactions as a live discussion. A live discussion can sometimes produce a better example of consensus, as ideas and perceptions are introduced, broken down and reassessed. Response times with the Delphi method can be long, which slows the rate of discussion. It is also possible that the information received back from the experts will provide no innate value. The Delphi method seeks to aggregate opinions from a diverse set of experts, and it can be done without having to bring everyone together for a physical meeting.

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  • Apart from religious respect, Delphi also had strong political power.
  • For example, very important was the Treasury of Athenians, of Sifnians and of Boetians.
  • The name "Delphi" has Greek origins from the word "Delphus," which means hollow, or womb.
  • Realistically, she was off her skull on gas that seeped out of the fissures of the temple in which she lived.

What is a modified Delphi technique?

The modified Delphi technique is similar to the full Delphi in terms of procedure (i.e., a series of rounds with selected experts) and intent (i.e., to predict future events and to arrive at consensus). The major modification consists of beginning the process with a set of carefully selected items.

Methane, which decidedly doesn't smell like flowers, can also cause hallucinations if inhaled in high enough doses. Methane can kill people a lot faster than ethylene, particularly if it's being burned, or otherwise decomposing, to produce carbon dioxide. A by-product of the conversion is carbon monoxide, which attaches itself to red blood cells more readily than oxygen does. Too much can smother a person, but not before they often experiences confusion and hallucinations. Carbon monoxide is a regular by-product of burning fuels, though, and so there's no reason why the ancient Greeks, who surely had mastered fire, would consider the gas and its effects so special.

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Another example is the Horizon Project, where educational futurists collaborate online using the Delphi method to come up with the technological advancements to look out for in education for the next few years. Well, if two heads are better than one, a panel of experts is truly great! The Delphi technique, also known as the Delphi method or Delphi forecasting, is a forecasting or estimating method based on a discussion by a group of experts. The Oracle at Delphi is referenced throughout Greek myths and history. Realistically, she was off her skull on gas that seeped out of the fissures of the temple in which she lived.

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The Delphi technique is useful for situations that allow for a range of scenarios or opinions, such as estimating the duration of tasks, identifying project risks and forecasting their probability, or allocating the resources. Learn about the Delphi technique, which allows experts involved in a discussion to reach a consensus about a project. We'll go through the steps and process, as well as the benefits and disadvantages of the technique.

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Here is the scientific explanation for what caused this woman to utter her confused prophecies. This spring flowed toward the temple but disappeared beneath, creating a cleft which emitted chemical vapors that purportedly caused the oracle at Delphi to reveal her prophecies.

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By virtue of its procedural structure (to incorporate both qualitative and quantitative methods), it provides the opportunity to achieve a more complete picture of the phenomenon under study. The more open-ended the Round 1 questionnaire (Q1) the better, ideally involving a series of open-ended questions inviting panellists to brainstorm. A quantitative ‘tick-box’ style format may also be used, but since the Delphi method sets out to generate new ideas, a quantitative Q1 seems to defy this purpose.

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The Gadhong oracle has died leaving Nechung to be the only primary oracle. Another oracle the Dalai Lama consults is the Tenma Oracle, for which a young Tibetan woman by the name of Khandro La is the medium for the mountain goddesses Tseringma along with the other 11 goddesses. Due to the ban, many of the abbots that were worshippers of Dorje Shugden have been forced to go against the Dalai Lama. The Sibylline Oracles are a collection of oracular utterances written in Greek hexameters ascribed to the Sibyls, prophetesses who uttered divine revelations in frenzied states.

),[1] formerly also called Pytho (Πυθώ), is the ancient sanctuary that grew rich as the seat of Pythia, the oracle who was consulted about important decisions throughout the ancient classical world. The ancient Greeks considered the centre of the world to be in Delphi, marked by the stone monument known as the omphalos (navel). A systematic forecasting method that involves structured interaction among a group of experts on a subject.

What does the word Delphi mean?

The Oracle at Delphi is referenced throughout Greek myths and history. Supposedly she was rendered psychic by Apollo. Even during the Oracle at Delphi's time, it was widely known that the Oracle's visions had a practical cause. Gas seeped out of the cracks in the cave where she sat, causing her to talk nonsense.

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Perhaps the mystic "vapors" that the Oracle breathed in had seeped through these. In interdisciplinary team found that dissolving limestone along those lines gave off gas and spiked the local water. Farnell, Lewis Richard, The Cults of the Greek States, in five volumes, Clarendon Press, 1896–1909.

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